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Saif al-Adel named Al Qaeda's interim leader
Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian former special forces officer, is named as acting leader of al-Qaida, according to Pakistani reports
A fierce succession battle appears to be gripping the senior ranks of al-Qaida in the wake of the death of leader Osama bin Laden, pitting regional affiliates against the central "hardcore" of the organisation.
Reports from Pakistan have named an Egyptian former special forces officer known as Saif al-Adel as the acting leader of al-Qaida.
Al-Adel, who is in his late 40s, is a veteran militant who was close to Bin Laden in the 1990s. He was detained in Iran after fleeing Afghanistan following the ouster of the Taliban in 2001. According to Noman Benotman, a former Libyan militant now living in London, al-Adel was released from Iranian detention and returned to Pakistan last year.
The report in the News newspaper of Pakistan identified al-Adel as having been chosen as "interim leader" of al-Qaida after a meeting at "an undisclosed location". It said none of the sons of Osama bin Laden had shown willingness to take up a formal position within the organisation.
One of the 54-year-old al-Qaida leader's adult sons, Khaled, was killed with his father in the raid on Abbottabad. Other sons have been groomed for leadership roles but are too young or inexperienced to command any real support.
If confirmed the appointment of al-Adel is a major blow to Bin Laden's close associate Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian extremist who has long been seen as the group's number two and key strategist.
Al-Zawahiri is reported to have been given the important, and usually shortlived, role of director of external or international operations for the group. This would be something of a demotion for a man who was Bin Laden's closest associate and a major figure in his own right.
It could provide the first evidence of a major split within militant ranks. Senior al-Qaida-affiliated extremists in both Iraq and Yemen have already pledged their support for al-Zawahiri, who is 59 and among the oldest contenders for the top position, and may not accept the leadership of al-Adel, even as an interim measure.
"I tell our brothers in al-Qaida led by Ayman al-Zawahiri, go on with God's blessing and be glad that you have faithful brothers in the Islamic State of Iraq who are marching on the path of right," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, recently appointed head of the al-Qaida affiliated Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), said in a statement posted on the internet last week.
Al-Baghdadi is thought to have been named to his post by al-Zawahiri. Rashad Mohammed Saeed Ismail, a senior Yemeni cleric who was close to Bin Laden and has been linked to the local "Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula" affiliate, was quoted by the Yemen Times as saying that "al-Zawahiri is the best candidate."
"He is the right person to take over. All wings of al-Qaida would approve of him and all Jihadist movements trust him greatly," Ismail was reported to have said.
According to Evan Kohlmann, an American specialist in jihadi forums on the internet, senior members on top-tier al-Qaida web forums already see al-Zawahiri as leader of al-Qaida.
Kohlmann reported that some extremists had begun calling al-Qaida "jund al-Ayman" which means "soldiers of Ayman [al-Zawahiri]".
Security sources have told the Guardian that until there is some kind of communication from verifiable al-Qaida sources – like the statement announcing Bin Laden's death – it is impossible to be certain who will become overall leader.
"There are a whole range of variables ... different factions and people and a very dynamic situation. It's pretty impenetrable," said one official. "Until we see anything more solid, all these reports are speculative."
Al-Qaida has always been troubled by factional splits. Evidence has emerged of increasingly acrimonious disputes between Libyan, Egyptian and other elements in recent years. There are generational differences as well as fierce debates over tactics and strategy.
"Some leading figures inside al-Qaida argue [it] is too soft, others that it is too extreme. Some want a greater focus on Egypt; others want a greater focus on other countries such as the Yemen," Benotman, the former militant, said recently.
Maintaining the network of alliances built up by Bin Laden will be one of the biggest challenges facing any future leader.
One recent communication from al-Qaida's "Fajr media centre" indicated a possible direction for the group following the death of Bin Laden.
"We say to every mujahid Muslim, if there is an opportunity do not waste it," the statement said, calling on followers around the world not to consult with any central leadership but "to carry out acts of individual terrorism with significant results, which only require basic preparation".
Al-Adel fought the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 1980s. After the fall of the Taliban in the winter of 2001 he fled to Iran. According to senior Saudi counter-terrorism officials, from there al-Adel authorized al Qaeda's branch in Saudi Arabia to begin a campaign of terrorist attacks in the Saudi kingdom that began in Riyadh in May 2003, a campaign that killed scores.
Some reports in the past year have suggested that al-Adel had left Iran for Pakistan.
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One of the key issues that al-Adel has to reckon with now is the fallout from the large quantities of sensitive information that was recovered by U.S. forces at the compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where bin Laden was shot on May 2. That information is likely to prove damaging to al Qaeda operations.
The selection of an interim leader allows al Qaeda to begin the process of collecting allegiance, or baya, from al-Qaeda affiliates such as the Yemen-based al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the North Africa-based al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.
Baya was a religious oath of allegiance to bin Laden rather than to the organization itself, in the same way that Nazi Party members swore an oath of fealty to Hitler rather than to Nazism. That baya must now be transferred to whomever the new leader of al Qaeda is going to be, which is likely to be al-Zawahiri, given his long role as bin Laden's deputy.
'Major blow' The U.K.'s Guardian newspaper reported that al-Qaida appeared to be in the middle of a power struggle over the succession. It said Zawahri seemed to have been demoted, describing Adel's appointment as a "major blow."
The News newspaper in Pakistan said none of bin Laden's sons "has shown willingness to join any post" in al-Qaida.
U.S. prosecutors say Adel is one of al-Qaida's leading military chiefs, and helped to plan the bomb attacks against the American embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 and set up training camps for the organization in Sudan and Afghanistan in the 1990s.
Benotman said the information was based on his own contacts in jihadist circles.
"This role that he has assumed is not as overall leader, but he is in charge in operational and military terms," he said. "This has happened in response to the impatience displayed by jihadists online who have been extremely worried about the delay in announcing a successor."
"It is hoped that now they will calm down. It also paves the way for Zawahri to take over," he said, adding that Adel and Zawahri were close.
Benotman, who knew Adel personally when both were active as militants in Afghanistan, said Adel "already occupied a role akin to chief of staff" even before bin Laden's death in a U.S. raid in Pakistan on May 2.
Adel was believed to have fled to Iran after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 2001 attacks on the United States, and they were subsequently held under a form of house arrest there, according to some media reports.
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Iranian authorities are reported by Arab media to have released him from custody about a year ago, and he then moved back to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
Some analysts say that Adel, widely believed to have been in remote areas of northern Pakistan over the past year, has since returned to Iran, or to Afghanistan, in recent weeks.
Benotman, who is a former leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which tried and failed to topple Libyan leader Moammar Gahafi in the 1990s, said it was taking time to obtain pledges of loyalty to Zawahri from the far flung affiliates and branches of al-Qaida.
Source: CNN/Guardian/UPI
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